By Taren Grom, Editor
Contemplating the year ahead As we move into 2008, it appears that there are many more questions than answers for the industry. Certainly, the upcoming presidential election is on everyone’s minds. The healthcare platforms presented by the front runners are being dissected and analyzed. No matter what your political affiliation is or who is elected, things are inevitably and obviously going to change. We’ll be hearing from all of the pundits what the pros and cons of the various platforms are and what the consequences will be for the industry in terms of payer systems, innovation, and patient access. This is the time of the year when we also hear from the industry’s best and brightest and learn what their forecasts are for the coming year, and in the case of PricewaterhouseCoopers, the next decade. IMS Health predicts that the growth rate for the global pharmaceutical market will be between 5% and 6% in 2008, compared with 6% to 7% in 2007, and global sales will be between $735 billion and $745 billion next year. IMS analysts attribute the slowdown to several factors, including a fall in the growth contribution from the top seven markets, acceleration in the growth of the pharmerging markets, a continued wave of genericization, expanding patient use of innovative specialty products, increased use of evidence supporting the value of medicines, continued uncertainty around safety issues, and a challenge to intellectual property rights on multiple fronts. “In several respects, 2008 marks an important inflection point for the global pharmaceutical market,” says Murray Aitken, senior VP, Healthcare Insight, IMS. “For the first time, the seven largest markets will contribute just half of overall pharmaceutical market growth, while seven emerging markets will contribute nearly 25% of growth worldwide. And, as the impact of established pharmaceuticals losing patent protection accelerates, we will see a decline for the first time in the size of the $370 billion to $380 billion audited market for primary care-driven drugs. In the coming year, biopharmaceutical and generics companies will more aggressively adjust their business models to manage through these inflections, capturing new opportunities in this changing market environment.” According to forecasts from PricewaterhouseCoopers, by 2020 the industry will double its growth and reach $1.3 trillion. These analysts state that this growth will only be possible based on radical and unprecedented changes to the entire system, ranging from research to commercialization. PharmaVOICE asked its audience of experts to provide their insights on some of the top trends facing the industry in 2008 and beyond based on the forecasts of IMS and PWC. In this special issue, we are pleased to showcase the predictions, comments, and insights of more than 130 experts representing almost as many companies in all the different sectors and disciplines. We would also like to thank these contributors for taking the time to make this Year in Preview issue a thought-provoking look forward. On behalf of the entire PharmaVOICE team, I would also like to extend our thanks to the hundreds and hundreds of individuals who raised their voices in the publication and the companies that supported us throughout the year. It is only through their continued participation that we are able to provide our readers with the cutting-edge, original editorial that has become the hallmark of the publication. Looking ahead, we want to wish all of you a healthy, happy, and prosperous 2008. And we look forward to staying with you as the trends outlined in this issue unfold. Happy holidays. Taren Grom Editor
